IMD forecasts a normal monsoon in 2018

IMD forecasts a normal monsoon in 2018

Rainfall will be 97% of the 50-year average with a 56% probability that rains will be normal to excess, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its first stage long range forecast.

IMD's SEFS model for the April forecast uses the following 5 predictors that require data upto March.

Previous year also, there was a normal monsoon forecast by the IMD. "The forecast suggests that the monsoon rainfall during the 2018 season averaged over the country as a whole is likely to be 97 per cent", IMD Director General K.J. Ramesh said at press conference here. In 2016, good monsoon has led to record production of oilseeds, food grains and also triggered a 4.2 per cent agriculture growth.

The top IMD official said there was "very less probability" of a deficient Monsoon this year, and added that the date of onset of Monsoon will be declared in the middle of the month of May.

The IMD issues its first monsoon forecast in April and updates it in June.

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"India will receive normal monsoon this year".

As the extreme sea surface temperature conditions over the Pacific and Indian Oceans particularly ENSO conditions over the Pacific (El Nino or La Nina) are known to have strong influence on the Indian summer monsoon, IMD is carefully monitoring the sea surface conditions over the Pacific and Indian oceans.

A figure between 96 to 104 percent is considered normal monsson.

The IMD, which released its initial forecast for the four-month monsoon season, also said preliminary indications showed this year's rains would evenly distributed.

Rainfall below 90 per cent of the average is considered deficient, above normal at 105-110 per cent, and excessive above 110 per cent.

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